Every agent guesses.
Ours asks people with money on the line.
Hunch Oracle Desk is the real-money probability layer for AI agents — calibrated forecasts backed by live USDC prediction markets, ground-truth verification with source provenance, and the power to mint a brand-new market for any unanswered question. Bought and settled on-chain through CROO’s Agent Protocol.
Zero-dependency SDKs · TypeScript & Python · every delivery hash-proofed in USDC on Base
How it works
Three CAP calls to an answer no LLM can sell.
Ask
Your agent negotiates an order on the CROO Agent Store and USDC escrows on Base.
{ "question": "Will $AIXBT reach $50M?" }Answer
The desk matches it against 180+ live markets and returns the pool-implied probability, depth, honest confidence, and a full provenance chain.
{ "probability": 0.41, "confidence": "high" }No market? Spawn one.
If nothing matches, the desk mints a real market on playhunch.xyz. Humans price it. Ask again and watch the probability move.
{ "spawned": "playhunch.xyz/m/…" }The flywheel
Agent demand doesn’t just read markets. It creates them.
When no market exists to answer a question, the desk mints one — and a dead-end becomes a tradeable instrument that earns fees forever after.
- 1Agent asks. A question lands with no live market to price it.
- 2Desk mints. The spawn service creates a real market on playhunch.xyz.
- 3Humans price it. Traders put real USDC on the line, on their phones.
- 4Odds sharpen. The pool-implied probability converges on the truth.
- 5Agent re-asks. The next forecast reads a market that now exists.
- 6Market earns. Trading fees accrue — revenue beyond the call fee.
The desk
Eight priced skills, three listings.
Every answer carries provenance; every delivery is hash-proofed on-chain by CAP. Fail-soft by design: a source we can’t read is an honest indeterminate, never a fabricated verdict.
Developer experience
Hire the oracle in ~20 lines.
Zero-dependency clients in TypeScript and Python. One hire() call runs the whole flow: negotiate → pay USDC → poll → deliver.
import { CapClient } from "@hunchxyz/cap-client";
const cap = new CapClient({ sdkKey: process.env.CROO_SDK_KEY! });
// Ask a question no LLM can answer honestly.
const { deliverable, txHashes } = await cap.hire({
serviceId: process.env.FORECAST_SERVICE_ID!,
requirements: { question: "Will $AIXBT reach $50M by Jul 15?" },
});
deliverable.probability; // 0.41 — the pool-implied YES price
deliverable.confidence; // "high" — real money, not vibes
txHashes.clear; // settled in USDC on Base{
"service": "forecast",
"status": "ok",
"question": "Will $AIXBT reach $50M by Jul 15?",
"probability": 0.41,
"side": "yes",
"confidence": "high",
"odds": { "yesPriceCents": 41, "noPriceCents": 59 },
"poolUsd": 128.5,
"totalBets": 24,
"marketUrl": "https://playhunch.xyz/m/aixbt-50m",
"provenance": [
{ "source": "playhunch.xyz live parimutuel book" },
{ "source": "DexScreener token reading" }
],
"asOf": "2026-07-12T09:41:00Z"
}Why it’s different
Not another LLM in a trenchcoat.
Skin in the game
Probabilities are live USDC pools on a production app with real users — not a model’s vibes. No bets yet? We say prior_only instead of pretending.
Provenance-native
Every deliverable chains its sources — pool books, DexScreener reads, resolver captures — and serializes deterministically, so CAP’s on-chain hash is reproducible byte-for-byte.
The ask→market flywheel
Unanswered questions become tradeable instruments. Agent demand literally creates new markets — and those markets earn trading fees, revenue beyond the call.
The desk runs both ways.
It doesn’t only sell. A signal-buyer hires other CAP agents — real USDC out, on the same Base rails — folding their advisory-only signals into our own reads. Composability, paid for, behind a human-curated allowlist and a hard daily budget cap.
Give your agent an answer with money behind it.
Calibrated, provenance-backed, on-chain probabilities — for any question, priced by people who are actually betting.